Free Chester Races Boodles May Festival 2021 Day Three Tips


14.15 Chester – Huxley Stakes 2021

The Huxley Stakes is a Group 2 race run over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 70 yards and it is open to horses aged four and older.

Huxley Stakes 10-Year-Trends 2021

The last 10 editions of the Huxley Stakes have attracted between five and eight runners, but only the 2010 winner was drawn in stall one, while none were drawn in stall two. Eight winners have been drawn in either stalls three, four, or five, with four winners coming from stall five.

Seven winners had run 13 to 68 days prior to their success, while the other three hadn’t run for between 144 and 260 days. Winners have been returned at odds ranging from 8/11 (1.72) to 11/1 (12.00).

Ryan Moore has ridden four of the last nine winners, while Aidan O’Brien (two) and Sir Michael Stoute (one) are the only trainers that have runners this year that have won the Huxley Stakes in the last decade.

Who Will Win The Huxley Stakes 2021?

Bharani Star is drawn in stall five but that’s about all she has going for her in this company, as she has between 9lb and 20lb to find on official ratings compared to her four rivals.

Aidan O’Brien’s 120-rated Armory sets a high standard for his rivals to aim at, but whether he will run to that rating first time out is the big question. He’s yet to win on either of his two previous seasonal debuts and may prefer quicker conditions.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Sangarius has already proven he handles a bit of cut in the ground but there must be a doubt as to whether this long-striding colt will be at his best around the tight turns of Chester after an absence of 139 days.

Bangkok has twice been beaten by a very short margin by Sangarius in his career, and he should be fitter than his rival having raced just 35 days ago. But he needs to overcome the stall-two hoodoo.

Palavecino has a bit to find with both Sangarius and Bangkok on the form of his last two runs on the all-weather, but this improving type went into the notebook for a race like this when winning a handicap at Chester in August. He pulled hard all the way that day but still bounded clear in the closing stages. The stable of Brian Meehan has also been red-hot in the last few days, making Palavecino an interesting value punt against higher-rated rivals.

Free Huxley Stakes 2021 Tip

Palavecino

14.45 Chester – Chester Cup Handicap 2021

The Chester Cup is a handicap race run over 2 miles 2 furlongs and 140 yards, making it one of the longest flat races run in England.

Chester Cup 10-Year-Trends 2021

The Chester Cup is limited to a maximum of 17 runners and, while an inside draw can be a huge advantage for horses that like to race near the pace, winners have come from a variety of stalls in the last ten years. Seven winners have been drawn in stalls one to six, but winners have also been berthed in stalls 11, 13, and 16.

Winners of the Chester Cup in the last decade have been rated between 92 and 101 and have carried between 8-9 and 9-6 to victory. Seven winners had run between 11 and 60 days prior to their success, with the other defying absences of 186, 209, and 242 days. But only two of those winners had won their previous race.

The shortest-priced winner of the Chester Cup in the last decade was 11/2 (6.50), while the longest-priced winner was 16/1 (17.00).
Donald McCain (two), Mark Johnston (one) and Ian Williams (one) have all trained winners in the last ten years, while Ryan Moore, Franny Norton, and Graham Lee have all ridden winners in that time.

Who Will Win The Chester Cup 2021?

Six of this year’s field are rated higher than 101 and carry more weight than 9-6, so Falcon Eight, Who Dares Wins, The Grand Visir, Themaxwecan, Lucky Deal, and Rare Groove will all be looking to buck those strong trends. Of that sextet, Who Dares Wins stands out as having the best chance, having secured a better draw than when placed twice in the race before.

While it’s possible to win from a double-figure draw, the stats say more winners are drawn low. The well-backed Not So Sleepy is drawn in stall 13, which looks far from ideal for this habitual pacesetter. Trumpet Man, Future Investor, and Rochfield House are other runners with double figure draws, while Coeur De Lion, Glencadam Glory, and Nate The Great are drawn slightly wider than ideal in stalls seven, eight, and nine.

Using those strong statistics to eliminate runners leaves us with just four contenders, all which hail from stables that have won the race before.

Blackeney Point is an interesting runner for Donald McCain, whose daughter claims a handy 5lb. He’s a winner of two of his three starts at Chester and he was sent off as the 4/1 favourite for the 2017 Chester Cup, when just fading in the final furlong. His flat form has been poor for a while but, after a good run over hurdles last time, he could run well at a big price at a course he likes.

Reshoun runs in the colours of Doctor Marwan Koukash, who loves nothing more than having winners at Chester. However, this 7-year-old has tried the turns of Chester once before and finished last.

Hochfield likes to front-run but, after four runs in a month, he doesn’t look to have been laid out for this big race. Jockey bookings also suggest he’s not Mark Johnston’s main hope.

The booking of Ryan Moore for the improving Cardano makes him our Chester Cup tip. He’s fancied to tuck in behind the leaders from stall one and pounce late to give Ian Williams a third Chester Cup win in 13 years.

Free Chester Cup 2021 Tip

Cardano (each-Way)

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