Free Chester Races Boodles May Festival Day Two Tips


14.15 – Dee Stakes 2021

The Dee Stakes is a Listed Race run over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 70 yards.

Dee Stakes 10-Year-Trends 2021

Despite Chester’s tight turns, no winner of the Dee Stakes in the last decade has been drawn in stalls one or two. All ten winners have been drawn in between stalls three and seven.

The racecourse experience of the last 10 winners has varied between two runs and six runs. Five winners had run in the previous 13 to 27 days, while the other five were making their seasonal debuts.

Like in many of the races at this meeting, Aidan O’Brien has an excellent record with six winners in the last eight years. Ryan Moore has ridden four of those winners. Eight winners were returned at no bigger than odds of 7/2 (4.50), but there have been winners at 11/1 (12.00) and 12/1 (13.00) in the last four years.

Luther Cee and Earlswood both won their last starts but it could be worth passing on the chances of the two lowest-rated horses, who are drawn in stalls one and two.

Maximal is the next lowest rated runner on a mark of 92, and Sir Michael Stoute’s representative has already had a run this season over a similar trip. He was second that day, but Ryan Moore was aboard, and he jumps ship.

It’s hard to know what to make of recent winner Fox Tales but his trainer Andrew Balding often targets this meeting with some useful types. He steps up in trip from a mile, as does the Roger Varian-trained El Drama who has already had two runs this season.

However, all the above runners have plenty to find with the two market leaders who have already achieved ratings of 107 and 109.

Yibir won twice at the end of last season and a prep run when third in a Group 3 should have put him spot on for this race. But his trainer Charlie Appleby hasn’t won the race before.

That’s why Ontario gets the vote for O’Brien and Moore. Third over 7-furlongs on his seasonal debut, O’Brien side-stepped the 2,000 Guineas to step him up to 10-furlongs here.

Free Dee Stakes 2021 Tip

Ontario

15.15 – Ormonde Stakes 2021

The Ormonde Stakes is a Group 3 race run over 1 mile 5 furlongs and 84 yards, and horses aged four and older are eligible to run in it.

Ormonde Stakes 10-Year-Trends 2021

Age hasn’t proved to be a barrier to success in the Ormonde Stakes in the last decade, with the oldest winner being aged seven. But it’s 4-year-olds and 6-year-olds that have the best records with five wins each. The other winner was aged five.

Seven winners carried 9-0 to success, while three winners have defied 3lb penalties. Six winners were making their seasonal debut, while two of the winners that had run in the season of their success had won their prep race.

Six winners were drawn in stalls one, two, or three, but four winners were also berthed in stalls five, six, and seven. Nine winners were returned at odds no bigger than 7/2 (4.50), while the biggest-priced winner was just 8/1 (9.00).

Jockey Ryan Moore has the best record in the race, having ridden four of the last ten winners. Two of those winners were for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has saddled three winners in the last decade.

Who Will Win The Ormonde Stakes 2021?

The ground is forecast to ride good-to-soft for the opening day of the Boodles May Festival but, with little rain forecast on Wednesday or Thursday, it may be riding good by the second day.

The drying ground may count against the 2019 Ormonde Stakes winner Morando, who is aged eight now and may not be ideally drawn in stall-7 if jockey Silvestre De Sousa decides to try and get an early lead. Withhold is another potential front-runner that is drawn even wider in stall eight, which is unlikely to do him or Morando any favours in the early stages.

Kipps has no chance on official ratings and this 93-rated handicapper is surely just making up the numbers, having already been beaten off a lower mark over a similar trip. Sextant is another runner that has plenty to find with the top-rated horses and, though he’s a course winner, he may have lost some speed after a couple of runs over hurdles.

Euchen Glen is useful at this trip, but he was disappointing on his seasonal debut. However, Chester should suit him, despite a poor run in the 2018 Chester Cup when he had a terrible draw.

Trueshan is an interesting horse for the season ahead, and the Ascot Gold Cup looks sure to be on his agenda after his win in the Qipco Long Distance Cup in October. But this may be a stepping-stone to that event and he must carry a 5lb penalty, which no winner this century has managed.

Japan is an obvious contender on ratings, as he’s the top-rated horse on a mark of 120 and runs for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. But the reason he doesn’t have a penalty is that he didn’t win last season, when he didn’t look anything like as good a horse and was as a 3-year-old. He may bounce back over this longer trip as a 5-year-old, but he’s a risky proposition at around 6/4 (2.50).

Sonnyboyliston is also a risky proposition, as the 4-year-old has yet to run over further than 10-furlongs. But it’s interesting that his shrewd trainer Johnny Murtagh steps up in trip for the first time at Chester, where his speed should be an asset around the tight turns. At around 12/1 (13.0), he looks worth an each-way bet.

Free Ormonde Stakes 2021 Tip

Sonnyboyliston (Each-Way)

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