Day five of Royal Ascot 2021 looks sure to be dominated by soft ground-loving horses. Check out our analysis and free Royal Ascot 2021 day five tips:
15.05 – Jersey Stakes 2021
The Jersey Stakes is a Group 3 race run over seven furlongs that is restricted to 3-year-olds.
Jersey Stakes Trends 2021
Nine of the last ten winners of the Jersey Stakes were colts, and four of those carried penalties to victory. Nine winners were drawn between stalls four and ten. Nine winners had enjoyed at least one prep run, but no winner had won their previous run.
Richard Fahey and Aidan O’Brien have both won two of the last ten renewals, but no jockey has won the race more than once in the last decade. Only one favourite has won in the last ten years, with the remaining winners returned between 9/2 and 25/1, including four winners returned at double-figure odds winners.
Who Will Win The Jersey Stakes 2021?
Creative Force is an upwards curve. He’s not yet proven over seven furlongs or on ground this soft, but he’ll surely go close if handing the extra demands on stamina. Mutasaabeq won on heavy ground on his seasonal debut but has looked better on faster ground this season.
Mehmento handled a bit of cut at Epsom last time but wasn’t at his best on very soft ground prior to that. Khartoum has won a maiden and a handicap (off a mark of 92) on soft ground, but he now needs to prove himself at Group 3 level.
Fast Raaj has proven his credentials by already winning over seven furlongs on soft ground in France and, though he has a 3lb penalty for that Group 3 success, he’s taken to land at least some each-way money from stall seven.
Jersey Stakes Tip 2021
Fast Raaj (Each-Way)
15.40 Hardwicke Stakes 2021
The Hardwicke Stakes is a Group 2 race run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 211 yards that is restricted to horses aged four and older.
Hardwicke Stakes Trends 2021
Sir Michael Stoute has saddled five of the last nine winners of this race, while Aidan O’Brien (two winners) and John Gosden (one winner) are also represented in this year’s race. Ryan Moore has also ridden four winners in the last decade.
No winners have been drawn in a double-figure stalls, though only four of the last ten editions have contained double-figure fields. The last ten winners had all enjoyed at least one prep run, and six had won their previous run.
Winners have been returned at odds ranging from 4/6 to 12/1.
Who Will Win The Hardwicke Stakes 2021?
Highest Ground must be respected for Sir Michael Stoute after he won on his first attempt at 12-furlongs last time, but it’s a worry that he flopped on his only previous start on soft ground.
Aidan O’Brien saddles a quartet of runners in Broome, Japan, Mogul, and Tiger Moth. Broome has more soft ground-winning form than his stablemates, but he’s been doing most of his recent winning at ten furlongs.
Ilarab has won two of his six times but needs to take another step forward, though he’s proven on soft ground, unlike Sir Ron Priestly. The fillies Albaflora and Wonderful Tonight both have soft ground form but aren’t proven against the boys.
Hukum proved he could handle soft ground last time and he showed at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting that he handles this course and distance. That was only a handicap, but he did have this year’s Gold Cup winner Subjectivist behind. He also stays a bit further, which could be a useful asset if conditions get really testing.
Hardwicke Stakes Tip 2021
16.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes 2021
The Diamond Jubilee Stakes is a Group 1 race run over six furlongs that is open to horses aged four and older.
Diamond Jubilee Stakes Trends 2021
The last ten editions of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes have been won by five 4-year-olds, four 5-year-olds, and one 6-year-old. Winners have won from stalls ranging from two to 15, but the last winner on soft ground was drawn in stall four, with the placed horses drawn in stalls seven and 11.
Nine of the last ten winners had enjoyed at least one prep run, and four had won their previous race. Ryan Moore has won two of the last five runnings, but no trainer has trained more than one winner in the last decade.
Seven of the last ten winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or lower, with the other three returned at 11/1, 14/1, and 25/1.
Who Will Win The Diamond Jubilee Stakes 2021?
The rain was brutal at Royal Ascot on Thursday and the ground will ride somewhere between soft and heavy on Saturday. That suggests that fast ground horses will struggle to win this prestigious Group 1, but there are plenty of runners that will relish the underfoot conditions.
The early market favorite Starman won on good to soft ground last time, but he flopped on soft ground at Ascot last season. Dream Of Dreams has won on soft ground but not at Ascot. His two runner-up finishes in this race have come on better ground, but the 7-year-old has the services of Ryan Moore and is drawn in stall three.
Nahaarr has avoided soft ground so far in his career, but Art Power should handle conditions and he was an impressive winner at this meeting last year. Glenshiel won a Group 1 at Ascot in the Autumn and his connections have had their prayers answered with the rain that has fallen. He could easily give Hollie Doyle another Royal Ascot winner.
An each-way play on Ventura Rebel is recommended. Trainer Richard Fahey has already struck at this year’s meeting and, though this 4-year-old has 12lb find to find with the top-rated horse, he’s run some of his best races at Ascot. He tends to come with a late rattle and, if the leaders tie up in the closing stages in heavy ground, he will relish picking them up late on.
Diamond Jubilee Stakes Tip
Ventura Rebel (Each-Way)