When Is The Scottish Grand National 2021?
The 2021 Scottish Grand National takes place at 15.35 on Sunday 18 April at Ayr Racecourse. It is the fifth race on an eight-race card for Coral Scottish Grand National Day.
How Far Is The Scottish Grand National?
The Scottish Grand National takes place over 3 miles, 7 furlongs, and 176 yards, which is 2 furlongs and 154 yards shorter than the Grand National.
How Much Does The Winner Of The Scottish Grand National Win?
The winner of the 2021 Scottish Grand National will win £84,405, while the winner of the 2021 Grand National won £375,000.
History Of The Scottish Grand National
The West of Scotland Grand National was the early forerunner of the Scottish Grand National, when the horses were asked to, frighteningly, jump several stone walls. In 1867, the Scottish Grand National moved to Bogside Racecourse.
After Bogside Racecourse was closed in 1965, the Scottish Grand National moved to its current home at Ayr Racecourse. Red Rum remains the most famous winner of the Scottish Grand National, and he remains the only horse to win both the Scottish Grand National and Grand National in the same year, which he achieved in 1974.
Scottish Grand National 10-Year-Trends
There was no Scottish Grand National in 2020, due to Covid, but the last 10-renewals have produced several strong statistics that we’ve factored into our analysis.
The last nine winners were rated between 134 and 146, while the last eight had run at least five times that season, with seven of those having won at least once already that season. Nine winners had run in the last 43 days. Winners have been aged between seven and 11, with 9-year-olds winning four editions.
Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners, while Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden two winners, but no other trainer or jockey has claimed more than one of the last renewals.
The lowest odds of any of the last 10 winners have been 15/2, but there have been more shock winners than favourites, with four of the last six winners returned at 25/1 or higher.
Scottish Grand National Runners
If you’re thinking of betting on Lake View Lad, Aye Right, Vintage Clouds, or Sam’s Adventure, you’re betting on them defying a rating of 147 or above. Only Grey Abbey has achieved that this century, and he won off a mark of 148.
The 2010 winner won off a mark of 127 but, with the last nine winners all being rated 134 or above, it could also be worth avoiding The Ferry Master, Enqarde, Cool Mix, Mister Fogpatches, Chidswell, Chef D’oeuevre, and Dino Boy.
No 12-year-old has won the Scottish Grand National this century, so Claude and Goldie may struggle against younger legs.
The ratings band of 134 to 146 that recent winners have fallen into leaves us with 12 runners to consider.
Notachance is rated 146, the same mark as three of the last nine winners. But he’s only had three runs this season, two of which were gruelling races.
Dingo Dollar has also had just three runs, but he did win his first start for his new stable and looks to have been saved for the race since. However, his stamina is suspect after fading late on in a couple of editions of the Ladbrokes Trophy over shorter. Stamina is also a worry for Old Grangewood.
The Dutchman should stay but he’s hasn’t won any of his four runs this season and the formbook suggests he prefers a much softer surface than the prevailing good ground. The Hollow Ginge also hasn’t won any of his four runs this season but did run well on good ground when fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy back in December. Big River has also failed to record a win in three runs.
Soldier Of Love bids to defy an absence of 154 days but, after flopping on soft ground when last seen, his connections have put him aside for this big target. His second to the National Hunt Chase winner Galvin certainly gives him a squeak, but most winners of the Scottish Grand National had run in the six weeks before the race.
Chapel Stile also must defy a slightly longer than ideal absence of 55 days, while he’s only run four times this season.
It’s hard to fault either Some Chaos or Coup De Pinceau from a statistical point of view, but both look quite exposed, having done most of their winning in lower-class races.
Mighty Thunder is the best statistical fit, as the eight-year-old has run in five chases this season, winning three times. He’s also proven he has the required stamina by winning over 4-miles and then just getting pipped over 4 miles 2 furlongs 29 days ago. If those exertions haven’t taken the edge of him, he should go close for his Scottish trainer.
Free Scottish Grand National 2021 Tips
The market for the Scottish Grand National 2021 is dominated by Aye Right, Dingo Dollar, and Vintage Clouds, three horses that the stats suggest could be worth opposing.
Soldier Of Love is available at 10/1, and there will be plenty of takers for this good ground-winning horse from a stable that has won two of the last four renewals.
Mighty Thunder is the sixth favourite with most bookmakers, but he appeals most among the fancied runners. Unlike many of his opponents, his stamina is assured for this test, and he looks worthy of a place in the staking plan.
Picking an outsider at 25/1 or bigger is tricky, but a saver on Chapel Stile at around 20/1 is recommended. Nicky Richards’ 9-year-old won at this meeting in 2018 over three miles over hurdles, staying on late in the style of a future chaser that may appreciate 4-miles. He missed the following season through injury but, after just four runs over fences, he has the potential to rate higher than 137 over fences.
Best Tips For The Scottish Grand National 2021
Mighty Thunder (Each-Way)
Chapel Stile (Each-Way)